Thursday, November 20, 2008

HOW ARE THE RANKINGS DONE?

I'M PROBABLY OPENING PANDORA'S BOX BUT I THOUGHT I WOULD TAKE THE TIME TO TRY AND EXPLAIN HOW EACH TEAM GETS ITS PLACE IN THE EMASS RANKINGS.

1. GET THE WEEKLY RANKINGS FROM DANNY V, MASSLIVE, GLOBE, HIGHSCHOOLSPORTS.NET AND CALPREPS.

2. COMBINE THAT INFORMATION IN TO ANOTHER FORMULA THAT TAKES IN TO ACCOUNT WHERE EACH SOURCE HAD PLACED EACH TEAM.

3. THERE ARE NUMEROUS CASES WHERE ONE OUTLET HAS A TEAM RANKED AND SOME OR ALL OF THE OTHERS DON'T. FOR EXAMPLE, WALPOLE HAS BEEN RANKED HIGHLY BY THE HERALD AND GLOBE ALL YEAR BUT NOT BY THE INTERNET SOURCES. THIS IS ALSO TAKEN IN TO CONSIDERATION AND GIVEN A POINT TOTAL THROUGH THE FORMULA I USE.

4. DANNY V'S RANKS ARE MULTIPLIED TIMES (1.25) TO OFFSET HIS HAVING A SWEET 16. THIS ALLOWS EACH SOURCE TO BE WEIGHTED ON A TOP 20 BASIS. OTHERWISE THE HERALD WOULD ESSENTIALLY HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT. IT'S NOT THAT I'M AGAINST THAT BUT FOR COMPILATION PURPOSES EVERYTHING HAS TO BE EQUAL.

5. AFTER COMPILING THE DATA FOR EACH TEAM THROUGH THE SOURCES AND MAKING THE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH A FORMULA, EACH TEAMS NUMBER IS THEN DIVIDED BY 5.

6. YOU ARE THEN LEFT WITH A POWER POINTS WHICH I POST NEXT TO THE RANK EACH WEEK.

FOR EXAMPLE THIS WEEK'S EVERETT RANK;

#1-(1.6)-EVERETT (8-1) @ CAMBRIDGE (4-5)

THE (1.6) IS EVERETT'S POWER POINTS (PP) WHICH EQUATES TO A RANK. SO IN OTHER WORDS THEY ARE NOT A UNANIMOUS #1 OR THEIR PP WOULD BE (1.0).

7. WHEN LOOKING AT THE RANKINGS THE PP IS VERY TELLING. TAKE A LOOK AT #9 MARSHFIELD AND #10 GLOUCESTER. THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED BY (.1) THIS MEANS THAT IF 4 SOURCES STAYED THE SAME AND ONE CHANGED GLOUCESTER'S POSITION BY 1 SPOT., GLOUCESTER WOULD MOVE AHEAD OF MARSHFIELD.

8. ALSO WHEN LOOKING AT THE PP'S, WHAT MAY LOOK LIKE A SMALL NUMBER IS ACTUALLY VERY LARGE WHEN THIS COMPILATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR EXAMPLE;

RANKS 1-13 ARE PRETTY WELL ENTRENCHED. IF YOU NOTICE THE GAP BETWEEN #13 BROCKTON (11.4) (OH BOY) AND #14 CATHOLIC MEMORIAL (17.0) IT IS (5.6) PP'S. THAT IS A LOT AND WOULD TAKE A WIN OVER A RANKED TEAM BY THE TEAM TRAILING AND AN UPSET BY AN UNRANKED TEAM OVER THE LEAD TEAM TO MOVE A TEAM THAT MUCH.

HOPE THIS HELPS AND NO I WILL NOT TELL YOU MY PART OF THE FORMULA.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

EMASS TOP 20-11/18/08

THIS IS A COMBINED TOP 20 POLL USING INFORMATION GARNERED FROM MASSLIVE, BOSTON GLOBE, BOSTON HERALD, CALPREPS AND HIGHSCHOOLSPORTS.NET.

GLOSSARY=RANK-POWER POINTS-TEAM-(W-L)-NEXT OPPONENT
NOTE: POWER POINTS ARE THE FORMULA I USE TO DETERMINE RANK

#1-(1.6)-EVERETT (8-1) @ CAMBRIDGE (4-5)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#1). EVERETT CRUISES TO THE GBL TITLE BEHIND TWO DIO MCLOUD RUSHING TD'S. BET THEY WISH THEY KNEW WHO WAS GOING TO WIN THE CATHOLIC CONFERENCE SO THEY COULD START GAME PLANNING NOW.

#2-(2.0)-BC HIGH (8-1) VS #14 CATHOLIC MEMORIAL (8-1)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#2). EAGLES LOOK TO WIN THE CC OUTRIGHT WITH A WIN. NOBODY HAS A POTENTIAL TOUGHER 3 GAMES IN 9 DAYS (CM, EVERETT, DART/BROCK) THAN BC HIGH COULD BE STARING AT.

#3-(2.4)-DRACUT (9-1) @ METHUEN (6-4)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#3). ANY TEAM THAT STARTS THEIR SEASON BY PLAYING AT BROCKTON AND AT EVERETT DESERVES A LOT OF CREDIT. YOU MIGHT NOT SEE THAT BACK TO BACK FROM A NON D1 SCHOOL AGAIN IN OUR LIFETIME.

#4-(5.0)-DUXBURY (10-0) @ #10 MARSHFIELD (9-1)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#4). DRAGONS WIN PATRIOT LEAGUE WITH EASE BUT THE ROAD GETS A LOT BUMPIER FROM HERE ON IN. AN EARLY WIN AGAINST XAVERIAN VAULTED THEM UP THE POLLS, DRAGONS HUNG THEIR BY WINNING EVERY GAME, BUT NOW IT'S TIME TO FACE THE IRON.

#5-(7.2)-DARTMOUTH (10-0) VS FAIRHAVEN (5-5)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#6). INDIANS HAVE BEEN LEFT TO FEEL LIKE THEY ARE FROM MISSOURI BECAUSE A LOT OF DOUBTERS WANT THEM TO "SHOW ME" HOW GOOD THEY REALLY ARE.. THANKSGIVING WON'T ACCOMPLISH THAT.

#6-(7.4)-MANSFIELD (9-1) VS FOXBORO (3-7)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#7). HORNETS HAVE THANKSGIVING GAME AGAINST FOXBORO WHERE THE KEY TO THE GAME IS TO AVOID INJURIES. VISIONS OF LAST YEAR'S CRUSHING DEFEAT TO THE SHAMROCKS ON THEIR MIND AND IN THEIR PREPARATION.

#7-(9.2)-ACTON-BOXBORO (9-1) VS WESTFORD ACADEMY (7-3)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#8). COLONIALS CALL THE TENNESSEE TITANS AND ASK JEFF FISHER IF THEY CAN BORROW VINCE YOUNG FOR A WEEK FOR THEIR SCOUT TEAM SO THAT THEY CAN PREPARE FOR MR. GRIMMARD AND THE MIDDIES.

#8-(9.4)-READING (10-0) @ STONEHAM (1-9)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#9). GUTSY WIN FOR THE ROCKETS OVER MELROSE TO TAKE HOME THE MIDDLESEX CROWN. RYAN IZZO AND THE REBELS ARE ON DECK.

#9-(9.8)-MARSHFIELD (9-1) VS #4 DUXBURY (10-0)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#10). SHANE DINBONA, SHANE DINONA, SHANE DIBONA. ONCE THEY ARE DONE WITH DUXBURY THE HIGH POWERED FRAMINGHAM FLYERS ARE ON DECK.

#10-(9.9)-GLOUCESTER (9-1) VS DANVERS (1-9)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#14). NOTHING AGAINST THE FALCONS BUT THE ONLY THING ON THE MIND'S OF THE FISHERMAN ARE THE CHIEFTAINS AND 10 MINUTE QUARTERS.

#11-(10.6)-XAVERIAN (6-4) @ #17 ST JOHN'S PREP (5-5)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#15). LOOKS LIKE THE SAND IN THE HOURGLASS HAS RUN OUT ON THE HAWK'S SEASON NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS T-DAY.

#12-(10.8)-BISHOP FEEHAN (8-1) @ SANDWICH (6-4)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#11). WHY DOES IT FEEL LIKE THE SHAMROCKS AND DUSTIN PEDROIA ALWAYS HAVE TO PROVE THEMSELVES? EVERY YEAR, EVERY BIG GAME THEIR DEMISE IS PREDICTED AND AT THE END OF THE YEAR THEY ARE ONE OF THE FEW STILL STANDING.

#13-(11.4)-BROCKTON (7-3) VS WALTHAM (3-7)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#12). BOXERS NEED TO, HAVE TO, MUST HAVE, IMPERATIVE, AT ALL COSTS A WIN OVER DARTMOUTH ON 12/2. IT'S THAT SIMPLE.

#14-(17.0)-CATHOLIC MEMORIAL (8-1) @ #2 BC HIGH

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#5). THE KNIGHTS DROP 9 SPOTS IN THE RANKINGS BUT THAT IS THE LEAST OF THEIR WORRIES. NEED A WIN AT BC TO KEEP THEIR CATHOLIC CONFERENCE PLAYOFF BERTH ALIVE. IF ALL GOES RIGHT FOR THE CM, THEY WILL FACE #2, #1 AND #5 IN 9 DAYS. YUK.

#15-(17.6)-WALPOLE (10-0) VS WEYMOUTH (4-6)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#17). IS IT ME OR DOES THE BAY STATE LEAGUE JUST FLIP THE STANDINGS UPSIDE DOWN AFTER FOOTBALL FOR THE BASKETBALL SEASON? TIME FOR THE REBELS TO COME OUT AND PLAY WITH THE REST OF EMASS NOW.

#16-(20.0)-MASCONOMET (7-3) VS NORTH ANDOVER (4-6)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#19). CHIEFTAINS HAVE BEEN ON THE CUSP OF THE ELITE, WILL NEED A WIN OVER THE FISHERMAN TO JOIN IN.

#17-(21.8)-ST JOHN'S PREP (5-5) VS #11 XAVERIAN (6-4)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#16). WELL, NOTHING WRONG WITH REMINISCING 20 YEARS FROM NOW ABOUT THE TIME YOU BEAT EVERETT IN EVERETT. THE REST OF THE YEAR DIDN'T GO AS PLANNED.

#18-(22.0)-NORTH ATTLEBORO (7-2) VS ATTLEBORO (8-2)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (UNRANKED). RED ROCKETEERS GET LITTLE CONSOLATION IN CRACKING THE TOP 20. NEED TO WIN TTHE BATTLE OF ATTLEBOROS TO SALVAGE THE SEASON.

#19-(22.4)-MELROSE (8-1) VS WAKEFIELD (7-1)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#13). TOUGH LOSS AGAINST THE ROCKETS ENDED THEIR PLAYOFF HOPES. A BOUNCE BACK WIN OVER THE WARRIORS WOULD END THEIR SEASON ON A GOOD NOTE.

#20-(22.6)-NATICK (9-1) VS FRAMINGHAM (8-2)

LAST WEEK'S RANK (#18). REBELS TOOK IT TO THEM, NOW NATICK LOOKS TO GIVE THE FLYERS ALL THEY CAN HANDLE ON TURKEY DAY.

CLOSING IN ON THE TOP 20, NORTON (9-1), ATTLEBORO (8-2) AND ABINGTON (10-0).

DROPPING OUT LINCOLN-SUDBURY (8-2).

FOR THOSE SCHOOLS THINKING THEY SHOULD BE IN THE TOP 20 OR RANKED HIGHER, IT COMES DOWN TO WINS AND STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE.

ALL THESE SOURCES ARE INDEPENDENT OF ONE AN OTHER SO THERE IS NO BIAS.







Monday, November 17, 2008

TDAY BEANO DROPPINGS

WITH MOST PLAYOFF BERTHS ALREADY SECURED, IT IS TIME TO TAKE AN EARLY LOOK AT SOME THANKSGIVING STATS.

1. THERE ARE 93 GAMES TO BE PLAYED ON THANKSGIVING INVOLVING EMASS SCHOOLS. THERE ARE 184 SCHOOLS INVOLVED.

NOTE: FOR YOU MATH MAJORS, THE REASON THERE ISN'T 186 SCHOOLS IN MY EMASS TOTAL IS THAT 2 SCHOOLS ARE PLAYING TEAMS FROM CMASS.

2. ONLY 20 OUT OF THE 93 EMASS GAMES INVOLVE TWO TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS. THAT'S RIGHT ONLY 21.5% OF THE GAMES HAVE EACH TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD.

3. LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS EVEN CLOSER ONLY 13 OUT OF 93 EMASS GAMES INVOLVE TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS THAT ARE FROM THE SAME DIVISION. YUP, ONLY 13.9% OF THE GAMES ARE BETWEEN TEAMS FROM THE SAME DIVISION WITH WINNING RECORDS.

EXAMPLE: (D3) ARLINGTON CATHOLIC (7-3) @ (D1A) ARLINGTON (6-4)


4. THERE ARE 26 GAMES OUT OF 93 (28.0%) WHERE ONE TEAM HAS A WINNING RECORD AND ONE HAS A LOSING RECORD.

5. IN 31 OF THE 93 EMASS GAMES (33%) OPPONENTS ARE PLAYING TEAMS IN DIFFERENT DIVISIONS.

EXAMPLE: (D2A) FAIRHAVEN (5-5) @ (D1) DARTMOUTH (10-0)

6. THERE ARE 19 GAMES THAT INVOLVE BOTH TEAMS WITH LOSING RECORDS OR (20.4%) OF THE 93 GAMES. INCLUDING ONE WHERE NEITHER TEAM HAS WON.